Julian Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks, is facing extradition from Britain to the United States after losing a challenge that would prevent that. Assange, who is wanted on 18 charges related to the release of confidential U.S. military records and diplomatic cables, will, however, renew his appeal next week according to a report by Reuters. The British High Court ruled that Assange had no legal grounds to challenge the extradition decision.

Previously, a British judge ruled against Assange’s extradition, citing concerns about his mental health and the risk of suicide if held in a maximum security prison. However, the decision was overturned on appeal after the U.S. authorities provided assurances, including the possibility of transferring Assange to Australia to serve any sentence.

WikiLeaks gained prominence in 2010 for releasing classified files and diplomatic cables, marking one of the largest security breaches in U.S. military history. As a journalist, Assange’s platform highlighted war crimes and incredible breaches of public trust by the U.S. military. His efforts to bring crimes and actions committed by the government to light have been met with furious retaliation despite the protections journalists should receive, even when reporting on sensitive information. To punish Assange for his work is to set the precedent that journalists who delve too deeply into government affairs will be made an example of.

Assange’s case has drawn international attention and sparked debates regarding freedom of the press and the potential implications for whistleblowers. The renewed appeal next week will be a crucial moment in determining Assange’s fate as he continues to fight against extradition to the United States.

The latest issue of Bitcoin Magazine Print is the Gatekeepers Issue, featuring Assange on the front. “We lead the editorial of The Gatekeepers Issue with an open letter to Julian Assange titled Dear Julian,” a download page for the cover story explains. “In this piece, the author likens Assange’s actions to those of ancient Greek Titan, Prometheus.” To read the full story, you can input your email to receive a virtual copy of the open letter — and to fully appreciate the Gatekeepers Issue, you can sign up for a subscription here. 

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Liquidators in charge of the recovery of assets for the now-disgraced Alameda Research hedge fund founded by Sam Bankman-Fried currently control over $110 million worth of bitcoin held in various wallets, according to a report supplied by blockchain analysis firm Arkham Intelligence. These wallets have been receiving BTC from exchanges and cold wallets as recently as March 2023, the report revealed.

The aggregation of these wallets provides insights into the liquidators’ collection of BTC from Alameda’s holdings. A recent transaction in April involved a 1 BTC test from Alameda’s Merchant wallet. This BTC was later sent to a holding address now under the control of Alameda’s Liquidators, known as ‘Alameda Merchant 1.’ Since the beginning of 2023, this address has accumulated 3,581 BTC, worth approximately $97.19 million at current prices.

The report states that “In total, Alameda’s liquidators have managed to secure 4,083 BTC (currently $110.81M) sourced from:

• Other Alameda Wallets: 34.94 BTC (currently worth $948.27K)
• Deribit: 467.366 BTC (currently worth $12.68M)
• WBTC Custodian: 2997 BTC (currently worth $81.34M)
• Bitfinex: 298.027 BTC (currently worth $8.09M)
• Unlabelled Wallets (possibly an Exchange): 286.7 BTC (currently worth $7.78M)”

“However, this is only a fraction of the BTC that Alameda controlled in the past,” the report noted. “Wallets connected to this network of Alameda’s BTC activity were worth at peak over $800M, with Alameda likely holding more BTC in Centralized Exchanges or unlinked Cold Wallets.”

Arkham Intelligence stated that it will continue to monitor the on-chain activity of Alameda’s liquidators.

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For the past 17 days, Bitcoin (BTC) price has been trading within a narrow 8.5% range from $27,250 to $29,550, causing the 40-day volatility metric to drop below 40%. This wasn’t restricted to cryptocurrencies as the S&P500 index’s historical volatility has reached 17%, its lowest level since December 2021.

But will $28,000 become the new resistance? Not according to the latest Bitcoin futures and options data. Nevertheless, macroeconomic conditions remain the main driver for risk markets’ price fluctuations in the near to medium terms.

BTC price flattens as investors lose risk appetite

A myriad of reasons could be given to explain the relatively low price oscillations in risk markets, including the expectation of a recession, investors unwilling to place new bets until the U.S. Federal Reserve ends its rate hikes, or increased demand (and focus) on fixed income trades.

The problem is that no one can prove what has been causing investors to restrict their risk appetite and drive Bitcoin’s price sideways. Many fear that commercial real estate is a growing concern, which could trigger major turbulence ahead—including Warren Buffett, the multi-billionaire fund manager.

While some believe that the U.S. debt ceiling discussion and the banking crisis could further cement the U.S. dollar’s weakening, Buffett does not foresee alternatives. The finance mogul is a long-term critic of the precious metal gold, as his investment thesis prioritizes yield-providing assets.

The debt ceiling drama has caused Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to warn that a “steep economic downturn” would follow if Congress fails to act in the next few weeks.

On the one hand, the government is facing pressure to sustain economic activity and contain the banking crisis. Ultimately, increasing the debt limit will add liquidity to the markets, further triggering inflation.

This complex environment of inflation risks, an economic downturn, and a weakening U.S. dollar might have caused investors to lose interest in risk assets and concentrate their bets on fixed income trades as interest rates have moved above 5% per year.

For Bitcoin, an alarming sign would be a negative futures contract premium or increased costs for hedging using options. That’s why investors should closely track those BTC derivatives metrics.

Bitcoin futures display weak demand from longs

Bitcoin quarterly futures are popular among whales and arbitrage desks. However, these fixed-month contracts typically trade at a slight premium to spot markets, indicating that sellers are asking for more money to delay settlement.

As a result, BTC futures contracts in healthy markets should trade at a 5-to-10% annualized premium — a situation known as contango, which is not unique to crypto markets.

Bitcoin traders have been extremely cautious in the past two weeks. Even during the recent rally toward $29,850 on May 6, there has been no surge in demand for leverage longs. Moreover, the subsequent 6.8% correction down to $27,800 has brought the BTC futures premium to its lowest level in two months at 1.5%.

Bitcoin options risk metric stood neutral

Traders should also analyze options markets to understand whether the recent correction has caused investors to become more optimistic. The 25% delta skew is a telling sign when arbitrage desks and market makers overcharge for upside or downside protection.

In short, if traders anticipate a Bitcoin price drop, the skew metric will rise above 7%, and phases of excitement tend to have a negative 7% skew.

Related: ‘Bitcoin is not under attack:’ BTC maxis allay fears of a DoS offensive

As displayed above, the options delta 25% skew has recently flirted with excessive optimism, as on May 7 the protective put options were trading at a 7% discount relative to similar neutral-to-bullish call options.

Still, the trend quickly reverted as the Bitcoin price tested levels below $28,000. Currently, this is a balanced risk appetite according to BTC options pricing, as the 25% delta skew indicator stands near 0%.

Bitcoin options and futures markets suggest that pro traders are less confident, favoring sideways trading. Thus, traders should not flip bearish due to weakening derivatives indicators.

In other words, if there was enough conviction that $28,000 would become resistance, one would expect a much higher appetite for risk-averse put options and a negative BTC futures premium, or “backwardation.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.